Cost-Benefit Model Shows Long-Term Recovery Housing at Ranch Could Save Illinois $113 Million
Independent economic review finds substantial public savings tied to long-term recovery housing at the ranch project
An independent economic review using a nationally recognized cost-benefit model finds that structured, long-term recovery housing delivers significant public value. The analysis for the Second Story Foundation’s ranch project shows projected gains in health outcomes, public safety, and workforce participation over 15 years.
These findings confirm what we see every day. Recovery becomes durable when people have time, stability, steady work, and a community that believes in them. When that happens, people rebuild their lives and strengthen the entire community.
-Jim O’Connor, executive director, Second Story Foundation
The model, developed by the Fletcher Group, draws on peer-reviewed research and national data on healthcare use, criminal justice involvement, employment, and mortality. It applies standardized inputs and accounts for the non-linear nature of recovery to estimate both direct and indirect economic effects. The methodology is published in the Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis and is widely used by policymakers to evaluate recovery housing and related programs.
Download the report here.
Total economic impact
Over 15 years, the program is expected to generate $125.7 million in total economic benefits on $12.3 million in total costs, resulting in $113.5 million in net benefits.
Return on investment
For every dollar invested, the ranch is projected to return $9.25 in social value. Even under conservative scenarios with delayed recovery benefits, the return remains positive at $6 per dollar.
Where the benefits come from
According to the model, benefits accumulate from four primary areas:
- Reduced premature mortality and morbidity: $98.5 million. This accounts for the largest savings and reflects longer life expectancy and improved long-term health.
- Avoided productivity losses: $17.2 million. As residents stabilize and return to work, household and market productivity rises.
- Avoided healthcare costs: $5.1 million. Recovery reduces emergency visits, hospitalizations, and chronic-care expenses.
- Avoided criminal justice costs: $5 million. Reduced recidivism lowers policing, court, and jail costs.
Projected reach
With space for 14 residents at a time and about 30 served per year, the program is expected to support 450 men over its first 15 years.
Why time matters
Recovery benefits do not begin immediately. The model accounts for the well-documented two to five year period it can take for long-term recovery to stabilize. Benefits remain strong even when delayed, although the total decreases with longer lag times.
Why success rate matters
Success rates are a key benchmark for funders. The calculator shows net benefits remain positive above a 20 percent success rate, and rise sharply at higher levels:
- 40 percent success: $71.6 million net benefits
- 60 percent success: $113.5 million net benefits
- 80 percent success: $155.4 million net benefits
What this means for Illinois
The analysis shows that a long-term recovery program with structured work, housing stability, and community support produces significant public savings and measurable economic value. It also demonstrates that capital investment in recovery housing is cost-effective and aligned with Illinois’ approved opioid settlement abatement uses for treatment, housing, and long-term recovery support.
Ryan Arnold
